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@rb_tweets
07:10 PM
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High-probability bonds
Near-certain Polymarket outcomes ranked by annualized yield.
56
Markets
146.2%
Avg APY
1003.9%
Best APY
9
Expiring Today
≥90%
≥95%
≥97%
≥99%
|
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→
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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
* featured
99.5%
1003.9%
5h left
99.5%
1003.9%
5h left
$4.2M
$2.5M
→
→
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
96.7%
>9999%
1h left
96.7%
>9999%
1h left
$25K
$6K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 19?
95.5%
920.8%
45h left
95.5%
920.8%
45h left
$30K
$30K
→
→
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 17?
100.0%
530.7%
1h left
100.0%
530.7%
1h left
$103K
$84K
→
→
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
100.0%
530.7%
1h left
100.0%
530.7%
1h left
$92K
$97K
→
→
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on March 19?
97.5%
511.4%
45h left
97.5%
511.4%
45h left
$23
$9K
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→
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $170?
96.0%
501.2%
73h left
96.0%
501.2%
73h left
$210
$10K
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Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $590?
96.0%
501.2%
73h left
96.0%
501.2%
73h left
$56
$10K
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→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?
98.9%
489.4%
21h left
98.9%
489.4%
21h left
$61K
$32K
→
→
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
98.5%
462.8%
29h left
98.5%
462.8%
29h left
$27K
$29K
→
→
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $365?
97.0%
378.4%
73h left
97.0%
378.4%
73h left
$25
$10K
→
→
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
100.0%
240.0%
2h left
100.0%
240.0%
2h left
$22K
$46K
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→
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - CCT Playoffs
100.0%
240.0%
2h left
100.0%
240.0%
2h left
$63K
$66K
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→
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on March 20?
98.5%
200.4%
69h left
98.5%
200.4%
69h left
$50
$9K
→
→
Games Total: O/U 3.5
100.0%
181.9%
2h left
100.0%
181.9%
2h left
$35K
$64K
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→
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner
100.0%
181.9%
2h left
100.0%
181.9%
2h left
$705K
$376K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18?
99.6%
168.9%
21h left
99.6%
168.9%
21h left
$53K
$36K
→
→
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs The Last Resort - Map 1 Winner
100.0%
155.1%
3h left
100.0%
155.1%
3h left
$983
$10K
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→
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
100.0%
142.5%
3h left
100.0%
142.5%
3h left
$60K
$41K
→
→
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of March?
95.5%
122.5%
14d left
95.5%
122.5%
14d left
—
$9K
→
→
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of March?
96.3%
101.3%
14d left
96.3%
101.3%
14d left
—
$9K
→
→
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 23?
99.0%
66.0%
141h left
99.0%
66.0%
141h left
$404
$10K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 18?
99.9%
63.2%
21h left
99.9%
63.2%
21h left
$78K
$50K
→
→
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $2.00?
99.6%
54.4%
73h left
99.6%
54.4%
73h left
—
$9K
→
→
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 16 above $50?
99.7%
42.2%
73h left
99.7%
42.2%
73h left
$1
$10K
→
→
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
98.7%
36.4%
13d left
98.7%
36.4%
13d left
$69K
$56K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 19?
99.9%
29.4%
45h left
99.9%
29.4%
45h left
$68K
$30K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
$122K
$114K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
$82K
$108K
→
→
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18?
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
100.0%
21.0%
21h left
$70K
$115K
→
→
Will Dortmund finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
96.7%
17.5%
71d left
96.7%
17.5%
71d left
—
$10K
→
→
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March?
99.6%
11.8%
14d left
99.6%
11.8%
14d left
$74
$10K
→
→
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 19?
100.0%
9.8%
45h left
100.0%
9.8%
45h left
—
$10K
→
→
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
95.5%
8.7%
196d left
95.5%
8.7%
196d left
$29K
$25K
→
→
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-18 House seat?
95.0%
8.3%
231d left
95.0%
8.3%
231d left
—
$940
→
→
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals?
99.4%
7.5%
29d left
99.4%
7.5%
29d left
$49K
$79K
→
→
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?
99.6%
5.6%
26d left
99.6%
5.6%
26d left
$20
$9K
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→
Will Hyperliquid reach $42 by December 31, 2026?
95.8%
5.6%
289d left
95.8%
5.6%
289d left
$2K
$10K
→
→
Will Drake release an album in 2026?
97.0%
4.0%
—
97.0%
4.0%
—
—
$942
→
→
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
100.0%
3.3%
135h left
100.0%
3.3%
135h left
$43K
$70K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris
100.0%
3.2%
139h left
100.0%
3.2%
139h left
$185K
$421K
→
→
Morelos: Alafia Ayeni vs Keegan Smith
100.0%
3.1%
141h left
100.0%
3.1%
141h left
$33K
$96K
→
→
Murcia: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Saba Purtseladze
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
100.0%
2.7%
162h left
$28K
$150K
→
→
Arthur Fery vs. Yunchaokete Bu: Total Sets O/U 2.5
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$242
$10K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luca Van Assche
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$336K
$434K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$264K
$417K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Ignacio Buse vs Coleman Wong
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$197K
$416K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Kimberly Birrell vs Yue Yuan
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$140K
$561K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Bianca Andreescu
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$109K
$524K
→
→
Murcia: Felix Gill vs Filip Pieczonka
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
100.0%
2.7%
163h left
$66K
$97K
→
→
Miami Open, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Donna Vekic
100.0%
2.7%
164h left
100.0%
2.7%
164h left
$30K
$121K
→
→
Will Drake release a new song in 2026?
98.0%
2.5%
—
98.0%
2.5%
—
—
$944
→
→
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch?
98.8%
1.5%
289d left
98.8%
1.5%
289d left
$51K
$23K
→
→
ChatGPT Outage by March 31?
100.0%
1.4%
13d left
100.0%
1.4%
13d left
$26K
$12K
→
→
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
99.5%
0.7%
289d left
99.5%
0.7%
289d left
$22K
$11K
→
→
Katana FDV above $50M one day after launch?
99.1%
0.5%
654d left
99.1%
0.5%
654d left
$24K
$41K
56 of 56 markets
APY = (1−p)/p × 365/d